Efficacy: the way to close the renewables gap

With peak oil already upon us, maintaining oil supply is akin to running up the down escalator.

Or,

as nate hagens put it at the aspo peak oil conference earlier this month, “technology is in a race with depletion and is losing (so far). “

The question is therefore urgent renewables can fill the deficit of oil depletion? Mind the gap. The most recent global selective information summarized by fuel available from the eia is, regrettably, for 2006 and only preliminary (i know they’re attempting to advance their reporting, but gravely – they need to do much better than that). But we’ll use what we’ve got. . .

In 2006, the total amount of energy the world consumed was 469 quadrillion btus, or quads. *

Whether or not the most recent selective information i gathered at the aspo peak oil conference is correct (and i think it’s, or leastways as close to, correct as anyone is going to come at this point), then we ought to suppose oil to begin declining at about 5% per year, starting around 2012-2014.

Of the 157 quads furnished by oil, a 5% decline rate will give way to 7. 85 quads lost per year, or 1. 7% of the world’s primary energy supply.

The “geothermal and other” category – providing 1. 6% of the world’s primary energy – represents all the renewable origins combined: geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and so on.

Since 1. 7% is very close to 1. 6%, we can replace the challenge of renewable energy for oil as follows: beginning around 2012-2014, is required to build the equivalent of existing capacity in the world of renewable energy each year simply to replacing lost oil BTUs.

Luckily, renewable energy of all kinds is enjoying a massive growth spurt, attracting trillions of dollars in investment capital. On intermediate, the sector appears being growing at about 30% per year, which is phenomenal. . . But it’s not 100%.

In terms of btu substitution, then, it seems improbable that renewables can grow at the necessary rate.

Not just btus

Nonetheless, the challenge is more complex than mere btu substitution.

Replacing the infrastructure, specially transportation, that’s grounded on oil with one grounded on renewably generated electricity will in itself require energy – and a large total of it. As vail pointed out, amongst 80% and 90% of the energy inputs for renewables ought to be made up front, before they start to pay any energy out.

Even whether or not renewables were able to make up all of the lost energy from oil, still more would be needed to afford any economical growth.

In all, it seems a fair bet that it will take leastways a decade for renewables to merely catch up with the annual toll of oil depletion. The gap will likely manifest as fuel shortages in the oecd, when the manufacturing world outbids it for oil, and a long economical recession or depression. . . Unless efficacy comes to the rescue.

To that point, jeff vail, an companion with davis graham & stubbs llp, said at the conference that population increase alone could offset as much as 30% of the improvement in conservation and efficacy. He noted that in spite of the recession, car sales are up 29% in india as humans buy their very introductory cars.

Falling net energy

Another driver of the down escalator is that the world wide web energy (eroi, or energy returned on energy invested), of nearly all fossil fuel production is falling.